Global iGuerilla Update

1979 Redux

Sunday, October 4, 2015

The 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was launched to prevent the overthrow of their client dictatorship. They withdrew 10 years later and the Soviet Union collapsed two years after that. In 2015, Russia sent troops and planes into Syria to prop up their client, Assad…

The majority of their attacks have been against the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the only moderate pro-western opposition in Syria. For the air campaign to work, the Russians must follow up with a ground offensive including the Syrian Army, the Iranian Qods Force and Hizballah—Shia forces backing a Shia dictator who’s killed hundreds of thousands of Sunnis.

Muslims make up between 15 and 20% of the population in Russia and most are Sunni. The potential for blowback is significant.

• Russia fought Sunnis in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989 and lost
• They fought Sunnis in Chechnya from 1994 to 1996 and lost
• They fought Sunnis in Chechnya again from 1999 to 2009 and won

Russia suffered a dozen plus terror attacks between 1995 and 2009 resulting in some 1600 deaths (exact figures are not available)

• Alienate the Central Asian Republics where ISIS is gaining strength
• Radicalize the loyal Chechen mercs that worked Georgia and Ukraine
• Push the FSA into an alliance with ISIS
• Inspire a resurgence of Islamist attacks in Russia
• Alienate the Sunni Middle East
• Increase radicalization of Muslim refugees; mostly Sunni fleeing Shia

Putin may get more than he bargained for; Great Power Status isn’t free.

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–Peter J. Schifferle PhD, Lt Colonel.(ret) Professor, School of Advanced Military Studies U.S. Army.

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